Natsumi Tsunoda can safely retire with Olympic gold

It was always going to be Tsunoda. She is a three-time World Champion (2021, 2022, 2023) and has been unbeaten by any non-Japanese since getting her World title in 2021 (her compatriot Rina Tatsukawa had beaten her in the 2022 Tokyo Grand Slam). She was head and shoulders above everyone else, and unless something were to terribly go wrong, she was expected to be the gold medalist.

Tsunoda is one of those players who likes to stick to one technique. Recently, she toyed with the Mollaei-style reverse kata-guruma and had some success with it but for tachi-waza, she mainly she sticks to tomoe-nage. Everyone knows this is what she is going to do but few can stop it. For newaza, she likes juji-gatame. She doesn't really go for other newaza. She mainly sticks to juji-gatame. And again, everyone knows that but they can't stop it.

In her first match, Tsunoda used both these techniques to defeat Natasha Ferreira of Brazil. First, she threw her with tomoe-nage for waza-ari, then she armlocked her for ippon. She repeated that routine with her second opponent, Geronay Whitebooi of South Africa: Tomoe-nage for waza-ari and then armlock for ippon. Just like clockwork.

Tsunoda faced the tough French player, Shirine Boukli in the quarterfinal. They had fought three times before and Boukli was well familiar with Tsunoda's style of play. She certainly was familiar with the tomoe-nage. But couldn't stop it. Over she went for ippon (no armlock was necessary).

Her semifinal opponent was the surprise upstart Tara Babulfath of Sweden, who had created a big upset defeating Italy's Assunta Scutto in the quarterfinal. Babulfath was wary of Tsunoda's tomoe-nage and kept herself very low in order to kill the technique each time Tsunoda tried it. When in between Tsunoda's legs (after each failed tomoe attack), Babulfath pulled her arms in tightly to avoid the armlock. She was well-prepared to defend against Tsunoda's main mode of attack.

Rather than switch tact, Tsunoda kept up with the tomoe and armlock attempts, forcing Babulfath to be on the defensive for much of the match. In the end, the match was decided by a third shido penalty that Babulfath got for doing an illegal grip break. This was something that Babulfath protested heavily but video replay clearly showed she had done an illegal break. Tsunoda was through to the final.

Tsunoda's opponent there was none other than Baasankhuu Bavuudorj, the impressive Mongolian player who had won gold at the 2024 Abu Dhabi World Championships. Sticking to her formula, Tsunoda attacked with tomoe-nage and scored with it. It wasn't an ippon, just a waza-ari. But it was enough to win her the match as Tsunoda managed to kill time on the ground to run out the clock.

In the best tradition of Japanese stoicism, Tsunoda showed no emotion immediately upon winning the match. She maintained her composure until she had bowed out and left the mat. Then she cried tears of joy.