Natsumi Tsunoda clear favourite for title U48kg

At the first judo day Natsumi Tsunoda is currently No. 4 in the Olympic Rankings but there's no question she's the top prospect for gold. Everyone knows she likes to do tomoe-nage but no one seems able to stop it. Lately, she's added the Mollaei reverse kata-guruma into her repertoire too.

Japanese female players are renowned for their newaza but not many of them specialize in armlocks. Tsunoda loves them and her transition from tachi-waza into newaza is seamless.

It's going to be hard for any contender to beat her. She hasn't lost to anyone in the past three years except to her compatriot Rina Tatsukawa in the 2022 Tokyo Grand Slam.

If the rankings hold true, Assunta Scutto is predicted to win the gold medal, overcoming current world champion Bavuudorj in the final. However, judo, especially at the Olympic level, rarely follows the rankings strictly. There is often a trend that aligns with the seedings, but many unseeded judoka are capable of causing upsets and altering the expected outcomes. For us Tsunoda is a clear favourite.

One such contender is Tugce Beder of Turkey. At the 2024 Abu Dhabi World Championships, she threw the world number one for waza-ari before being held down. Earlier in 2023, she also defeated the same opponent with a waza-ari throw. Beder demonstrated her capability by beating Nikolic, the 6th seed at the Games, to reach the final in Dushanbe and by throwing Bavuudorj twice in a dominant victory in Tashkent. Her fearlessness makes her a formidable opponent, and none of the top seeds will want to face her in their quarter.

Another potential disruptor is Tara Babulfath of Sweden, the youngest registered athlete in the group at just 18 years old. Despite her youth, she is already a senior world medallist and grand slam winner. Babulfath has a dedicated team that supports her natural, calm focus and hard work. She has balanced junior and senior commitments impressively, showing no signs of fatigue. At this year's World Championships, she beat Catarina Costa of Portugal, an 8-time grand slam medallist, to claim the bronze medal. Her rapid progress and improving ne-waza are factors that the top judoka will need to consider carefully.

These two athletes, along with other unseeded judoka, are focused, well-trained, and experienced, making them capable of upsetting the established order and challenging for the top spots. The unpredictability and dynamic nature of judo mean that the competition is open, and surprises are always a possibility.

In Pool A, Assunta Scutto (ITA) has a pretty clear path.

In Pool B, there's Natsumi Tsunoda (JPN) and Shirine Boukli (FRA).

In Pool C, Baasankhuu Bavuudorj (MGL) has a pretty clear path.

In Pool D, there's Abiba Abuzhakynova (KAZ) and Milica Nikolic (SRB).