Day 1: Who will follow up Distria Krasniqi and Naohisa Takato at day 1

The first judo day at the Olympic Games in Paris is set for Saturday, July 27th, featuring the lightweight categories. The spotlight will be on the women's U48kg division as a new champion is sought to succeed Distria Krasniqi. At the top of the seeding is Italy's Assunta Scutto, who, despite a break from competition, made a strong comeback by reaching the World Championships final. Scutto's resilience and determination position her as a strong contender for Olympic gold.

Natsumi Tsunoda is currently No. 4 in the Olympic Rankings but there's no question she's the top prospect for gold. Everyone knows she likes to do tomoe-nage but no one seems able to stop it. Lately, she's added the Mollaei reverse kata-guruma into her repertoire too.

Japanese female players are renowned for their newaza but not many of them specialize in armlocks. Tsunoda loves them and her transition from tachi-waza into newaza is seamless.

It's going to be hard for any contender to beat her. She hasn't lost to anyone in the past three years except to her compatriot Rina Tatsukawa in the 2022 Tokyo Grand Slam.

Her main rivals will be Assunta Scutto from Italy and current World Champion Baasankhuu Bavuudorj of Mongolia. She's beaten Scutto twice (in 2022 and 2023) and she's also beaten Bavuudorj twice (also in 2022 and 2023).

These judokas will be significant challengers to the European athletes vying for the top spot. France's own Shirine Boukli, a fan favorite and a major contender on home soil, has shown her prowess by winning the European title in Montpellier 2023 and the Paris Grand Slam this year. Boukli whom Tsunoda has also beaten twice (in 2020 and 2023).

Also among the top contenders are Milica Nikolic from Serbia, who has faced intense national rivalry, and Portugal's Catarina Costa, known for her battles against Boukli in major finals. Spain's Laura Martinez Abelenda, while facing a tougher challenge according to rankings, embodies the unpredictable spirit of judo where any athlete can rise to the occasion. Tugce Beder from Turkey and Tara Babulfath from Sweden, both of whom have shown strong performances leading up to the Games, are also in contention.

In the men's U60kg category, attention shifts to Japan's Nagayama Ryuju, who steps into the spotlight after Naohisa Takato's gold medal win in Tokyo. The Japanese team, given their historical dominance in judo, faces high expectations. Ryuju Nagayama is No. 6 in the Olympic rankings and has never won a World title (he has two World bronzes). Yet, we think he is the top favorite for gold. No doubt, he crashed out early in the 2024 Abu Dhabi World Championships (a result of an uchimata-sukashi) but if you look at the -60kg field, he is by far the most technically accomplished player. And by now, he is very experienced in fighting players of all styles.

Alongside Nagayama, strong contenders from Europe include Balabay Aghayev of Azerbaijan, Turkey's Salih Yildiz, and Ukraine's Dilshot Khalmatov. Spain's Francisco Garrigos, the 2023 World Champion and three-time European Champion, has emerged as a leading figure in this category. He faces stiff competition from Tokyo Olympic silver medallist Yang Yung Wei of Taiwan and Georgia's Giorgi Sardalashvili, the current World Champion, who is a rising star with high expectations.

Yang is a superb fighter but he has trouble beating Japanese opponents, and Nagayama has beaten him in all of the four times they have fought.

Garrigos is an excellent fighter as well, capable of both orthodox and unorthodox techniques. But Nagayama has fought and beaten him six times, although it should be said that the last time this happened was ways back in 2019. Garrigos has matured a lot since then.

Sardalashvili, who is only 21 years old, is the reigning World Champion. And Nagayama has never fought him before. Sardalashvili's unorthodox techniques coupled with the confidence of youth, could very well prove to be a problem for Nagayama.

But Nagayama is very experienced and has proven in the past to be capable of dealing with all kinds of players. He is our top favorite for gold.

The French crowd will undoubtedly rally behind Luka Mkheidze, the Tokyo bronze medallist, as he competes in the Champ-de-Mars Arena with the Eiffel Tower as a backdrop. The stage is set for an exciting and unpredictable start to the judo events at the Paris Olympics.

In Pool A, Yang Yung Wei (TPE) and Yeldos Smetov (KAZ) are the ones to look out for.

In Pool B, Francisco Garrigos (ESP) and Ryuju Nagayama (JPN) are the top prospects.

In Pool C, Giorgi Sardalashvili has quite a clear path

In Pool D, Luka Mkheidze (FRA) and Kim Won-jin (KOR) are the top dogs.