Can Guram Tushishvili win the Olympic title?

Guram Tushishvili (GEO) is one of the frontrunners for the +100kg Olympic gold. The other top prospects, of course, are Teddy Riner (FRA) and the Japanese representative – presumably it will be Tatsuru Saito, although Kokoro Kageura is currently the higher-ranking player. Lukas Krpalek (CZE) would have been a top prospect too but he has just announced his move back down to U100kg.

Tushishvili has fought Riner three times. The first time they fought, at the 2017 Budapest World Championships, he very nearly defeated the Frenchman, with a footsweep in the dying seconds of their match. Riner managed to land on his front so no score was given, and he then went on to score with sumi-gaeshi for waza-ari. But that was a close shave for Riner.

The second time they fought was in the 2017 Marrakesh World Open Weight Championships. There, Riner won more decisively, throwing Tushishvili twice in regular time. The first one was a big harai-goshi that was initially awarded ippon but downgraded to waza-ari. The second was a very low uchimata that was given a waza-ari. This would normally mean waza-ari-awasete-ippon but in 2017, the rules were such that there could be multiple waza-aris. (The IJF later changed this unpopular rule). In this match, Riner was clearly dominant.

The third time they fought was at a European club team championship this year, where Tushishvili gave a strong fight to the aging Riner, now already 33. In fact, Tushishvili was initially awarded the win for this match but this was reversed by the IJF when video replay showed that Tushishvili had done an illegal move that warranted hansoku-make. The reversal was a rather groundbreaking decision because it was made long after both players had already bowed out. Normally, even faulty decisions stand once the players have left the mat. But it was the correct decision.

What Tushishvili has shown is that on a good day, he can go toe-to-toe with Riner, who is a much larger opponent. In his prime, Riner could physically dominate Tushishvili but these days, Riner can no longer do so. If Tushishvili is able to play a strategic game, do a lot of drop attacks and Footsweeps, and cause Riner to rack up penalties, he might be able to finally beat his nemesis.

Tushishvili has never fought Saito, who dwarfs him. It will be hard for Tushishvili to throw a player as big and heavy as Saito but he could play a strategic game and dance around Saito to force him to incur penalties. This is exactly what Andy Granda of Cuba did at the Tashkent World Championships, and it worked. But you can be sure that Saito has learned from that experience and his coaches would have since prepared him for such “shido play”. Whether he would be able to successful deal with that is another question. But if Tushishvili were to beat Saito, it probably would have to be through penalties.

It would be challenging for Tushishvili even if the Japanese representative turns out to be Kageura, a much smaller and cagier opponent, who is able to do drop techniques as well as Tushishvili can. In their first match-up at the 2018 Paris Grand Slam, Tushishvili was already down by two shidos when he kneed Kageura in the ear during a newaza exchange, leading to a hansoku-make for unsportsmanlike conduct. The second time they fought was at the 2018 Guangzhou World Masters. There, Tushishvili won through penalties.

Tushishvili fought in several tournaments last year and the results have been mixed. He won gold in the Tel Aviv and Antalya Grand Slams, and won bronze in the European and World Championships. He lost in the first round of the Baku Grand Slam though.

This year has just begun. With any luck, we will be able to see him fight Saito for the first time, in some upcoming competitions.